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Monday, March 05, 2012

X Marks the Sun

From George Ure's today:

X Marks the Sun
Although we're not expecting the tippy-top peak of solar activity until sometime late spring to summertime of 2013, nevertheless this little blurb from the solar data center in Belgium caught our attention...
An X1.1 flare was detected by GOES this morning, peaking at 04:05 UT in the NOAA AR 1429 (no Catania number yet) situated at N19E58. With the limited AIA data available at the moment of writing, it appears that the flare is accompanied by coronal dimmings and a post-eruption arcade indicating the eruption of a CME. A halo CME was detected by the SOHO/LASCO coronagraph. We expect the CME-associated interplanetary disturbance to arrive at the Earth on March 7-8, possibly triggering a minor to moderate geomagnetic storm. SEP flux at energies above 10 MeV started to rise since around 00:00 UT today (probably resulting from the CME associated with yesterday's M2.0 flare). Crossing the threshold of an SEP event is probable in the coming hours. Protons from both CMEs are delayed due to the eastern position of the CME source region.
Let's see:  March 7-8th, huh?   My the old "energies hit Earth" or "Expando Planet" model that would set up major earthquake expectations for around the 8-10th kind of timeframe...
Speaking of quakes and such, our erstwhile reader who runs the monthly update on global earthquake activity (going back to 1973) sent along this note of note:
Check out Magnitude 5. It's showing signs of rounding out and down trending, while 6 is showing signs of the opposite. 7 remains strongly up. 3 and 4 strongly down.
Trends are accelerating!

Putting on my "Mr. Spreadsheet hat" and pushing the trendline (5th order, polynomial) of the data out 36 months we would expect monthly quakes of 7.0 or larger magnitude to be running about 3.8 quakes per month, while applying the same forecast to the 3.0 shakers has them virtually disappearing in about 30-months.

Which is hardly reassuring, if you think about it, since the disappearance of small quakes would mean the crust of Earth is getting "locked up" and when this happens you can start seriously wondering about megaquakes, crustal shift, planet wobble and mega volcanoes putting the lights out for billions.  Or, does that get underway a few X-class flares from now?  There's always something to worry about, isn't there?

Why, next thing you know Planet X/Niburu will show up and.....

Data Gap
As long as we've got the mental telescope dialed in on the future, seeing into the "data gap" of Clif's forecasts is getting really interesting.

Last week, for example, there was an internet outage that impacted the Pentagon, and there was one over the weekend which took out a large chunk of eastern African countries.  Was a cable cut...again?  Or, does this hint at large undersea topographic changes due to the quakes and growing of the East African Rift?  I'll put a dime on the latter and let the expando planet bet ride...

Question is:  How much quaking would be it taking to make the net stop shaking?  (Horrible writing, but we're saving the A material for later in the week...)

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