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Monday, August 01, 2011

Tropical Storm Emily Threatens Antilles, Concern for U.S.

By , Expert Senior Meteorologist
Aug 1, 2011; 4:15 PM ET

"Computer models probably will not have a good handle on the system until it gets stronger, hence the uncertainty at this point," Mancuso said.

This graphic shows one possible avenue for the system to follow. However, a track more to the west is still possible.

Tropical Storm Emily will threaten the Antilles first and could approach part of the U.S. coastline this weekend.
"A relatively weak system, such as a tropical storm, could continue westward through the Caribbean," Mancuso added.
Initially, heavy rain will be the problem. Strong winds, building seas and more heavy rain will follow as the storm strengthens.

    The strength of the storm will likely determine its path and survivability in the days ahead.
    The storm has had some issues with dry air and wind shear over the weekend. It may have to negotiate 4,000-foot mountains on Puerto Rico or 10,000-foot mountains on Hispaniola later this week.
    According to Meteorologist Mark Mancuso, "A strong system is more likely to survive the trip through the rugged mountains of the Greater Antilles."

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