Excerpt-A 2011 Look Ahead: Nuclear Poker

From George Ure's Urban Survival - A 2011 Look Ahead: Nuclear Poker I wasn't going to strain the brain, at least too much, this morning because so many  people are in a holiday-building mood.  But as I look at all the talk about what's ahead for 2011, there's a topic which keeps floating around the email inbox which deserves some serious discussion, so make sure the coffee is warm for this because this is almost news-magazine length here . We start with an informational note from a well-placed, but retired military source, who sends along some interesting background about the direction and possible  outcomes for nuclear weapons use in southwest Asia.  "George, Since 'at least' 1990 the DoD has been worried about a nuke showdown between India and Pakistan. I participated in a major war game, and was in the Nuclear, Biological and Chemical (aka 'nukes, bugs and gas) 'white cell.' An exercise 'white cell' provides factual guidance (in our case, things  like weapon effects in densely populated areas, local/global dispersal patterns, etc.) to the 'players' of the exercise in their respective areas of expertise. First, it quickly became apparent (with 'real' former U.S. state department officials and then current U.S. DoD seniors playing) that US meddling in such a conflict could easily worsen the situation. The underlying religious animosity between the two nations almost necessitated that each not back down in order to 'save face.' Making matters worse, if America tried to intervene, Russia and China would resent our exercising an unwelcomed influence in 'their hemisphere.'  So superpower intervention could rapidly escalate a regional conflict into a global one. This prevented the US from preemptively 'taking out' either side's nukes with non-nuke strikes for all the obvious reasons. If the conflict ever reached a serious stage, it was likely that tactical nukes would first enter into the fray. Keeping superpowers out of this mess was the tricky part. Some of the key take-aways from a 'limited' India-Pakistan tactical WMD exchange (less than a dozen or so total low yield weapons): - A nuke exchange would likely start in or around the Kas hmir region. Without external pressure, the conflict would likely smolder out after each side exchanged sufficient blows in a relatively unoccupied area to 'save face.' Kashmir was viewed as the most obvious such place for military units to face off. - The Himalayas would largely contain any resultant fallout, but trade winds (depending upon the time of year) could  push airborne radioactivity south toward the equatorial jet stream or even back to the west and the Middle East. If the fallout in fact reached the equator, it could easily be 'pumped' across the globe via the equatorial wind patterns -- not good for surface water, livestock and crops, not to mention people. - N. Korea was seen as regionally destabilizing and continuously 'posturing' (like a rooster approaching a hen  house), but not insanely dangerous to the point of invading the South (they did not have nukes back then, but the games were set in 1997-8, when nukes were seen as 'possible' for the Communist state). This 'game' ultimately resulted in my picking up an English translation of the the ancient Indian Mahabharata. Many have postulated that this ancient scriptural accounting in fact describes a nuclear war using manned flying machines. But here's the rub -- did one or more mightier minds of  that long ago time write down something that 'had' actually occurred, or (much like our very own Time Monks) were they able to somehow divine events 'yet to come,' writing down what today's scientific minds view as culturally steeped mythology but which they back then intended as a prophetic warning to those of us willing to listen)? All of which would make a mighty fine "ponder with adequate scotch" until we come along to the headline on the Debka site this morning.  This is where the news edges over toward scary: "Pakistan makes two nuclear weapons available to Saudi Arabia." Gather round the poker table, we need to talk about this latest hand that's been dealt. One line of thinking might be that one of the root causes for the war in the 'eastern' sandbox' (now playing in a 'Stan' near them)  has been to set up a war within Pakistan (remember, Benazir Bhutto was killed by assassins in 2007 perhaps partly for outing the murder of Osama bin Laden as reported, and perhaps as destabilizing effort).  Properly choreographed, this would set up the West seizing the Pakistani nuclear arsenal.  "For your own good" in Nanny State-ese. Books: Nuclear Bomb and Pakistan- external and internal factors               Pakistan and the Bomb: Public Opinion and Nuclear Options (Notre Dame Studies on International Peace) A bomb for the Ummah: some of Pakistan's nuclear scientists believe that the bomb should be shared with all of the Muslim community, even--or especially--with ... from: Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Pakistan's 'Islamic Bomb' Has Stretched Its Nuclear Shadow As Far As The Sea Of Japan.: An article from: APS Diplomat News Service Pakistan's nuclear bomb The Rings of Allah (Award Winning Clash-of-Civilizations trilogy) Fast forward to today's headline from Debka:  Their article reports that the actual weapons promised the Saudis "...are most probably held in Pakistan's nuclear air base at Kamra in the northern district of Attock. Pakistan has already sent the desert kingdom its latest version of the Ghauri-II missile after extending its range to 2,300 kilometers. " My point being that although the weapons are promised they are held in Pakistan.  I think what may be in play here is that the Pakistanis, by promising the Saudis a couple of nukes - have in a sense taken out an 'insurance policy' which would make it very difficult for the US/West to go in and seize the Pakistani nuclear arsenal as things on the ground deteriorate in the region. Where up until this latest move was revealed, the US might have been able to mount force and take nukes away from the Pakistanis, but to do so now - with this latest deal - would be viewed by the Saudis (read: big oil source) as a move to disarm them and since they have oil, they have leverage. ----http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm    __________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ Fibre System Plus (30 packets/box) http://shaperite.my4life.com/shopping/productdetail.aspx?mode=0&iid=224&cid=198 • Contains 27 herbal extracts to provide thorough, comfortable intestinal cleansing and purification • Provides the perfect gastrointestinal cleanse to start any nutritional regimen