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Wednesday, September 01, 2010

Thoughts on Coming Changes

Whether these changes are good or bad depends in part on how we adapt to them but, ready or not, here they come!

1.  The Post Office:    Get ready to imagine a world without the post office.  They are so deeply in financial trouble that there is probably no way to sustain it long term.  Email, Fed Ex, and UPS have just about wiped out the minimum revenue needed to keep the post office alive.  Most of your mail every day is junk mail and bills.
2.  The Check:   Britain  is already laying the groundwork to do away with checks by 2018.  It costs the financial system billions of dollars a year to process checks.  Plastic cards and online transactions will lead to the eventual demise of the check.  This plays  right into the death of the post office.  If you never paid your bills by mail and never received them by mail, the post office would absolutely go out of business.

3.  The Newspaper:   The younger generation simply doesn't read the newspaper.  They certainly don't subscribe to a daily delivered print edition.  That may go the way of the milkman and the laundry man.  As for reading the paper online, get ready to pay for it.  The rise in mobile Internet devices and e-readers has caused all the newspaper and magazine publishers to form an alliance.  They met with Apple, Amazon, and the major cell phone companies to develop a model for paid subscription services.

4. The Book:   You say you will never give up the physical book that you hold in your hand and turn the literal pages.  I said the same thing about downloading music from iTunes.  I wanted my hard copy CD.   But I quickly changed my mind when I discovered that I could get albums for half the price without ever leaving home to get the latest music.  The same thing will happen with books.  You can browse a bookstore online and even read a preview chapter before you buy.  The price is less than half that of a real book.  And, think of the convenience once you start flicking your fingers on the screen instead of the book; you find that you are lost in the story, can't wait  to see what happens next, and you forget that you're holding a gadget instead of a book.  

5.  The Land Line Telephone:   Unless you have a large family and make a lot of local calls, you don't need it anymore.  Most people keep it simply because they've always had it.  But you are paying double charges for that extra service.  ( I love this part J) All the cell phone companies will let you call customers using the same cell provider for no charge against your minutes.

6.  Music:   This is one of the saddest  parts of the change story.  The music industry is dying a slow death.  Not just because of illegal downloading.  It's the lack of innovative new music being given a chance to get to the people who like to hear it.  Greed and corruption is the problem.  The record labels and the radio conglomerates are simply self-destructing.  Over 40% of the music purchased today is "catalog items," meaning traditional music that the public is familiar with; older established artists.  This is also true on the live concert circuit.  To explore this fascinating and disturbing topic further, check out the book "Appetite for Self-Destruction" by Steve Knopper, and the video documentary "Before the Music Dies." 
7.  Television:     Revenues to the networks are down dramatically; not just because of the economy.   People are watching TV and movies streamed from their  computers.  And they're playing games and doing lots of other things that take up the time that used to be spent watching TV.   Prime time shows have degenerated down to lower than the lowest common denominator.  Cable rates are skyrocketing.  Commercials run about every 4 minutes and 30 seconds.  I say good riddance to most of it.  It's time for the cable companies to be put out of our misery.  Let the people choose what they want to watch online and through Netflix.
8.  The "Things" That You Own:   Many of the very possessions that we used to own are still in our lives, but we may not actually own them in the future.  They may simply reside in "the cloud."  Today your computer has a hard drive and you store your pictures, music, movies, and documents.  Your software is on a CD or DVD, and you can always re-install it if need be.  But all of that is  changing.  Apple, Microsoft, and Google are all finishing up their latest "cloud services."  That means that when you turn on a computer, the Internet will be built into the operating system.  So, Windows, Google, and the Mac OS will be tied straight into the Internet.  If you click an icon, it will open something in the Internet cloud.  If you save something, it will be saved to the cloud.  And you may pay a monthly subscription fee to the cloud provider.  In this virtual world, you can access your music or your books, or your whatever from any laptop or handheld device.  That's the good news.  But, will you actually own any of this "stuff" or will it all be able to disappear at any moment in a big "Poof?"  Will most of the things in our lives be disposable and whimsical?   It makes you want to run to the closet and pull out that photo album, grab a book from the shelf, or open  up a CD case and pull out the insert.
9.  Privacy:   If there ever was a concept that we can look back on nostalgically, it would be privacy.   It's gone.  It's been gone for a long time anyway.  There are cameras on the street, in most of the buildings, and even built into your computer and cell phone.  You can be sure that 24/7 "They" know who you are and where you are, right down to the GPS coordinates, and the Google "Street View".  If you buy something, your habit is put into a zillion profiles, and your ads will change to reflect those habits.  And "They" will try to get you to buy something else:  again and again.
10. Transportation:  Major changes coming here. America was built on cheap energy. The cheap party is quickly coming to an end. Our automobiles will become much smaller and more energy efficient. We will experience an
increase in public transportaion. We will witness a much larger use of bicycles and motorbikes. We will also
rethink our use of automobiles regarding pleasure. Large SUVs and non business "pickup" trucks will only appear in family photo albums. Transportaion will be quided by the law of physics.
11. Housing: Our homes sizes have also grown as a result of cheap energy. Homes will become much smaller. Luxury homes will be smaller, but lavishly appointed. Many factors will play in the reduction of size of our residences such as: higher property taxes, maintence costs, energy costs, lifestyle changes, construction costs, smaller family sizes, real estate costs, etc. There will be a dramtic increase in condo, townhomes, duplex types. Very large homes with large acreage will be solely owned by the immensely wealthy as in the UK .

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1 comment:

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