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Wednesday, September 12, 2007

So Far, 2007 is a Shaking Year - Earthquake Parameters Changed

Shaker .Stats
 
 

 
Aerial view of collapsed sections of the Cypress viaduct of I-880, October 17, 1989, Loma Prieta, California [H.G. Wilshire, USGS]

In the U.S., earthquakes pose significant risk to 75 million
Americans in 39 states.
USGS Jan. 2004

From 1975-1995 only four states did not have any earthquakes:
Florida, Iowa, North Dakota, and Wisconsin


September 12, 2007
Holly Deyo

2007 is shaping up to be a big-bang-year for earthquakes! Today's 8.4 Indonesian event has been followed by numerous large aftershocks.

Below you will find USGS earthquake statistics for the last 16 years. At the far right are two columns in purple and green. These compare the actual number of 2007 quakes to what usually occurs in any year and the percentage fulfilled for each magnitude.

In September 2003, USGS made an 'adjustment' to quake averges. The number of Richter 7's, 8's and 9's was revised DOWNWARD based on data since 1900. Instead of 2 magnitude 8's, now only 1 is considered normal. As of today's, we've seen 4.

Averages for magnitudes 4, 5 and 6 were revised UP based on observations since 1990.

The light green column reflects these 'new norms' while the light purple column shows what used to be considered average. Either way, Richter 8's are definitely up for this year. So are all of the other magnitudes except Richter 7's, looking at the pre--2003 figures. It is likely Richter 7's are lower due to the higher number of mag. 8's occurring. This indicates more energy is being released.

To see the percentage of quakes occurring for either the new or old figures, look at the dark purple and darker green columns.

As for Richter 4, 5 and 6 events, we have either already exceeded expected quake numbers (by the old norms) or are very close to meeting the averages based on the new norms.

To say the least, 2007 is busy and there are nearly four months to go.


GLOBAL EARTHQUAKES JANUARY 1, 1992 - SEPTEMBER 12, 2007 (Sept. 12 is a partial count)
Mag. 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
2002
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 "Old"
Annual
Ave.
thru 9-12
to "Old"
Ave.
"New"
Annual
Ave.
thru 9-12
to "New"
Ave.
8.0 - 9.9
Great
0 1 2 3 1 0 2 0 4 3
1
1 2 1 1 4 2 200% 11
400%
7.0 - 7.9
Major
24 15 13 22 21 20 14 23 16 15
12
16 14 11 11 6 18 33% 172
35%
6.0 - 6.9
Strong
163 141 161 185 160 125 113 123 153 124
130
145 146 154 139 118 120 98% 1342
88%
5.0 - 5.9
Moderate
1,521 1,449 1,542 1,327 1,223 1,118 979 1,106 1,345 1,243
1,218
1,252 1,637 1,954 1,529 1,098 800 137% 13192
83%
4.0 - 4.9
Light
5,153 5,034 4,544 8,140 8,794 7,938 7,303 7,042 8,084 8,084
8,584
8,454 10,783 13,702 13,048 7,819 6200 126% 13,000
60%
Deaths 3,814 10,036 1,038 7,949 419 2,907 9,430 22,711 231 35,000-
40,000*
1,712
43,819 284,010 82,364 6,605 681 10,000 7% 10,000
7%
1 Based on observations since 1900.
2 Based on observations since 1990.

*NOTES: At the end of September 2003, the USGS adjusted earthquake global averages for magnitudes 4, 5, 6 and 7. Most have increased, one magnitude decreased in shaker averages. This indicates an overall increase in earthquake activity. To get a fair comparison, both the "old" and "new" averages are included in the chart above.

The exact number of deaths from the January 26, 2001 India earthquake will never be known. According to the Red Cross, "
Death toll reports vary widely, with some ranging from more 20,000 to as many as 100,000."



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