More Mega-hurricanes may Loom on the Horizon

ADVERTISEMENT More mega-hurricanes may loom on horizon By Michael Coren CNN (CNN) -- As Hurricane Frances bears down on the United States, weather trackers are sounding the alarm. Yet Frances may only be the first in a series of large, powerful storms to march across the Atlantic in coming years. The arrival of hurricanes like Charley and Frances within weeks of each other is a rare anomaly, but some meteorologists say more storms like Frances -- both very intense and very large -- are possible. "Over the past few years, we've seen an increasing trend toward greater activity in the Atlantic Basin and increased strength in storms," said Marshall Shepherd, a research meteorologist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. "[That] has been leading us to believe that we are going to start seeing more intense hurricanes. That may be bearing itself out right now." A combination of natural cycles and warming ocean temperatures from global warming may be fueling the destructive storms. Scientists like Shepherd employ an array of satellites, aircraft and computer models to answer those questions in their mission to comprehend the Earth's climate. "Compared to 20 years ago, we've seen dramatic improvement in our track forecasting," Shepherd said. "But we still have a long way to go." The legendary storms appear in the Atlantic Ocean like clockwork between June and November. The hurricanes batter coastlines, destroying homes, coastal towns and beaches over their lifetimes during which they can expend the energy of 10,000 nuclear bombs, according to NASA's Earth Observatory. Although scientists track, monitor and probe them relentlessly, they can do little about them. Since 1900, Atlantic hurricanes have cut a swath of destruction across the re gion, accounting for billions of dollars in damage and more than 71,000 deaths, said the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. But a new torrent of meteorological data is leading to a better understanding of the physics of hurricanes. Recently developed technology can identify the precise wind direction and rainfall in different parts of the storm. At the same time, sharp-eyed satellites and sophisticated computer models offer unprecedented views inside the giant vortexes. What they have found is making hurricane-hunting more about science than guesswork. The National Hurricane Center reports that its forecasts of where a storm will make landfall have been steadily improving over the past 50 years. For three-day forecasts, the average margin of error is now about 200 nautical miles, just half of what it was in 1964. Daily predictions are also improving. Today, the average margin of error is just 85 nautical miles, the Center reported. Disaster coordinators still advise those in the potential path of many hurricanes to evacuate. Although measures can be taken to secure property, little can be done against the worst hurricane winds that can exceed 150 mph, spawn tornadoes and send floodwaters many miles inland. "[With] enough money, you can build buildings resistant against the wind," said Andy Coburn, associate director of the Duke University program for the study of developed shorelines. "The force of water is completely different. We don't have the technology or the economic feasibility that can withstand the forces of moving water." America's infatuation with coasts, and the dense population centers on the East Coast, mean that it will not escape hurricanes' wrath. If storm intensity and frequency pick up, the country could be in for a wild ride. Coburn offered only one solution "Get the hell out of the way," he said. Copyright 2004 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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We're being threatened by Hurricane Frances in Florida!

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