Roy and I have to leave town Friday - we're going to California for a week. Hope our house in Miami is still here when we get back. Just kidding. It'll be here. You bet our traveling group will be checking the news frequently. Dee xx oo
Ivan's path similar to Charley has it heading for Florida
By Ken Kaye
sun-sentinel.com
September 8, 2004, 8:56 PM EDT
Hurricane Ivan's forecast track has taken a right turn -- a turn for the worse for Florida.
A dangerous Category 4 system, packing 140 mph winds, Ivan was projected to follow a path similar to that of Hurricane Charley, which came up from the Caribbean and paralleled the Gulf Coast before bashing Punta Gorda, Fla., last month.
That could put Ivan, a much bigger system than Charley, precariously close to South Florida and possibly deliver a considerable blow with strong winds and rain by Sunday or Monday. It also would put the Florida Keys under the gun.
Potentially, the monster storm could make a direct hit in South Florida, considering long-range forecasts can have a large margin of error. Or, with a slight wobble closer, Ivan could produce as much and possibly more wet, gusty misery here as Hurricane Frances did over the weekend.
If it stays on its current track, South Florida would be on the east, right side of the storm, where the winds are strongest and the rain heaviest, said Jim Lushine, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Miami.
``Another 12 inches of rain wouldn't be out of the question in this part of the state,'' he said. ``It's certainly a threat.''
The bottom line: South Florida needs to again brace for potential hurricane or tropical storm conditions. The system was to be about 900 miles southeast of Miami by this Thursday morning.
``Everybody wants to know where it's going to hit,'' Jennifer Pralgo, meteorologist with the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County, said Wednesday. ``Unfortunately, let's wait and see. Make sure you're prepared.''
Under the future track, Ivan would be west of Fort Myers on Monday, in a position where it could menace the entire southern tip of the state -- though South Florida might start feeling its outer bands a day earlier.
With hurricane force winds that extend 70 miles from its core and tropical force winds that reach out 160 miles, Ivan is about 100 miles wider than Charley.
There is the chance Ivan could shift farther to the west and endanger some other state. But as of Wednesday, all of Florida fell into the National Hurricane Center's dreaded cone of error.
Late on Wednesday, Ivan was in the Caribbean Sea about 585 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, moving west-northwest at 17 mph. Hurricane watches and warnings have been posted along the north coast of Venezuela and the southwest coast of Haiti. Jamaica has issued a hurricane watch.
Ivan made a direct hit on Grenada on Tuesday, leaving homes and businesses in shambles. It also caused extensive damage on Barbados, St. Vincent and St. Lucia.
It was projected to build to 150 mph, just shy of Category 5 force, and churn over Jamaica on Friday, near the Cayman Islands on Saturday and over west Cuba, near Havana, on Sunday. In addition to the winds, it threatened to bring 5 to 7 inches of rain and storm surge flooding along its path, the hurricane center said.
It likely would weaken as it rolls over those land areas. But it still was forecast to emerge in the Florida Straits with 132 mph winds, which is Category 4 strength and capable of massive destruction.
If Ivan makes landfall in Florida, it would be the state's third strike in a month after Charley and Frances. Florida hasn't been hit by three hurricanes in the same year since 1964, when Cleo, Dora and Isbell came calling.
The South Florida Water Management District is worried Ivan could cause flooding in waterlogged areas and, as a result, is moving water out to sea or into storage areas.
``We've been hit by Charley; we've been hit by Frances,'' said Jo Ann Hyres, district spokeswoman. ``Even if we were just to receive a few feeder bands right now, we'd be in a heck of a predicament.''
For now, Florida's west coast is the most threatened, including flood-prone Tampa, where almost 1 million residents evacuated last month to flee from Charley.
As with Frances, forecasters again are faced with computer models that sharply disagree on Ivan's future track. Some models take it into the Gulf of Mexico close to the Gulf Coast. Some aim it east of the state, paralleling the coastline and heading north.
``The track is changing all the time,'' Pralgo said. ``We're trying to keep it steady. If we go with the models, we'll be going back and forth like a windshield wiper.''
The models' disagreement centers on whether a ridge of high pressure, north of Ivan's track, will weaken and allow the system to move to the north. That is the same high-pressure area that pushed Frances into the Treasure Coast on Sunday.
``It's been a busy year,'' Pralgo said. ``Most of the hurricane specialists haven't taken their shutters down.''
South Florida Sun-Sentinel correspondent Neil Santaniello contributed to this report.
sun-sentinel.com
September 8, 2004, 8:56 PM EDT
Hurricane Ivan's forecast track has taken a right turn -- a turn for the worse for Florida.
A dangerous Category 4 system, packing 140 mph winds, Ivan was projected to follow a path similar to that of Hurricane Charley, which came up from the Caribbean and paralleled the Gulf Coast before bashing Punta Gorda, Fla., last month.
That could put Ivan, a much bigger system than Charley, precariously close to South Florida and possibly deliver a considerable blow with strong winds and rain by Sunday or Monday. It also would put the Florida Keys under the gun.
Potentially, the monster storm could make a direct hit in South Florida, considering long-range forecasts can have a large margin of error. Or, with a slight wobble closer, Ivan could produce as much and possibly more wet, gusty misery here as Hurricane Frances did over the weekend.
If it stays on its current track, South Florida would be on the east, right side of the storm, where the winds are strongest and the rain heaviest, said Jim Lushine, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Miami.
``Another 12 inches of rain wouldn't be out of the question in this part of the state,'' he said. ``It's certainly a threat.''
The bottom line: South Florida needs to again brace for potential hurricane or tropical storm conditions. The system was to be about 900 miles southeast of Miami by this Thursday morning.
``Everybody wants to know where it's going to hit,'' Jennifer Pralgo, meteorologist with the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County, said Wednesday. ``Unfortunately, let's wait and see. Make sure you're prepared.''
Under the future track, Ivan would be west of Fort Myers on Monday, in a position where it could menace the entire southern tip of the state -- though South Florida might start feeling its outer bands a day earlier.
With hurricane force winds that extend 70 miles from its core and tropical force winds that reach out 160 miles, Ivan is about 100 miles wider than Charley.
There is the chance Ivan could shift farther to the west and endanger some other state. But as of Wednesday, all of Florida fell into the National Hurricane Center's dreaded cone of error.
Late on Wednesday, Ivan was in the Caribbean Sea about 585 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, moving west-northwest at 17 mph. Hurricane watches and warnings have been posted along the north coast of Venezuela and the southwest coast of Haiti. Jamaica has issued a hurricane watch.
Ivan made a direct hit on Grenada on Tuesday, leaving homes and businesses in shambles. It also caused extensive damage on Barbados, St. Vincent and St. Lucia.
It was projected to build to 150 mph, just shy of Category 5 force, and churn over Jamaica on Friday, near the Cayman Islands on Saturday and over west Cuba, near Havana, on Sunday. In addition to the winds, it threatened to bring 5 to 7 inches of rain and storm surge flooding along its path, the hurricane center said.
It likely would weaken as it rolls over those land areas. But it still was forecast to emerge in the Florida Straits with 132 mph winds, which is Category 4 strength and capable of massive destruction.
If Ivan makes landfall in Florida, it would be the state's third strike in a month after Charley and Frances. Florida hasn't been hit by three hurricanes in the same year since 1964, when Cleo, Dora and Isbell came calling.
The South Florida Water Management District is worried Ivan could cause flooding in waterlogged areas and, as a result, is moving water out to sea or into storage areas.
``We've been hit by Charley; we've been hit by Frances,'' said Jo Ann Hyres, district spokeswoman. ``Even if we were just to receive a few feeder bands right now, we'd be in a heck of a predicament.''
For now, Florida's west coast is the most threatened, including flood-prone Tampa, where almost 1 million residents evacuated last month to flee from Charley.
As with Frances, forecasters again are faced with computer models that sharply disagree on Ivan's future track. Some models take it into the Gulf of Mexico close to the Gulf Coast. Some aim it east of the state, paralleling the coastline and heading north.
``The track is changing all the time,'' Pralgo said. ``We're trying to keep it steady. If we go with the models, we'll be going back and forth like a windshield wiper.''
The models' disagreement centers on whether a ridge of high pressure, north of Ivan's track, will weaken and allow the system to move to the north. That is the same high-pressure area that pushed Frances into the Treasure Coast on Sunday.
``It's been a busy year,'' Pralgo said. ``Most of the hurricane specialists haven't taken their shutters down.''
South Florida Sun-Sentinel correspondent Neil Santaniello contributed to this report.
Copyright © 2004, South Florida Sun-Sentinel
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