..GET USED TO IT! Oh great..
Tue Nov 29, 2005 6:12 PM ET
MIAMI (Reuters) - The busiest and costliest Atlantic hurricane season on record finally ends on Wednesday but meteorologists cautioned that it may be years before the tropical Atlantic settles down.
So next hurricane season might not be any better.
"You bet I'm worried about next year, and several years after that," Max Mayfield, director of the U.S. National Hurricane Center, told a news conference.
"We have six months to prepare for the 2006 hurricane season. It's reality. We've got to deal with that."
Records fell like tree branches during the 2005
hurricane season that began June 1 and formally ends November 30.
There have been 26 tropical storms, besting the old record of 21 set in 1933. Thirteen of them strengthened into hurricanes, topping the old record of 12 in 1969.
"These are double to triple the number we would see in an average season," said Gerry Bell, lead meteorologist for the climate prediction center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Hurricane Katrina blasted into the record books when it submerged New Orleans and bulldozed the Mississippi coast in late August, causing at least $80 billion of damage. That made it the costliest hurricane on record and the costliest natural disaster ever to strike the United States.
The monster storm killed at least 1,300 people, the most in the United States since 1928. But Hurricane Stan was deadlier, killing up to 2,000 people with torrential rains that triggered mudslides and flash floods in Central America in October.
"Within all the record-breaking statistics of the past hurricane season, there are epic human impacts ... suffering on a very large scale," Mayfield said.
DEADLY LESSONS
Forecasters had warned that 2005 would be hyperactive because hurricanes feed on warm seas, and ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic region have warmed by 2 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit (1 to 2 degrees C).
The upper atmospheric winds that can shear off the tops of cyclones have been mostly absent for the past few years, so hurricanes that form are more likely to persist.
Meteorologists said those conditions are part of naturally occurring cycles that alternately produce low-hurricane-activity periods and high-activity ones, each lasting 20 to 30 years. The current high-activity period began in 1995 and could last another decade or longer, Bell said.
Not only were there more and stronger storms, but wind patterns off Africa steered more of them westward across the Atlantic and into the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, increasing the number that hit land this year.
The U.S. weather agencies have asked Congress for a $50 million funding increase next year to pay for additional flights by planes that fly into storms to gather data and for research aimed at improving their forecasts.
They have improved in the last 15 years at forecasting where a storm will go, but are often stymied in their attempts to predict how strong it will be when it gets there.
Coastal residents often ignore evacuation orders if they expect a weak hurricane, which leaves them vulnerable if it intensifies rapidly near shore. And if a strong storm fizzles near shore, those who fled inland to escape it may be tempted to ignore evacuation orders next time.
"We almost always overforecast on rapid development and underforecast on rapid weakening," Mayfield said.
Forecasters expected the deadly lessons of 2005 to push compliance with evacuation orders above the typical 30 percent, and to encourage people to prepare to be self-sufficient for up to week after a major storm.
"I think we have people's attention after this year," Mayfield said.
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