The vigorous tropical wave, now in the Atlantic near the Dominican Republic, continues to get better organized. As of 2 p.m. today, the National Hurricane Center gave it a 60 percent – or high – chance of developing into a depression or storm over the next two days.
At the same time, the models have come more into agreement that the system will move generally toward South Florida. Now about 900 miles from Miami, it was lumbering northwest at about 10 mph.
Dennis Feltgen, spokesman for the hurricane center, said the models can't be trusted until the wave develops a closed circulation – a primary requirement before a tropical system can be deemed a depression or a storm.
In other words, the models could continue shifting and where this thing ultimately will go remains uncertain. Feltgen said a hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate the system on Wednesday.
The chance of the system spinning up into a hurricane before it reaches South Florida is low, according to Jeff Masters, chief meteorologist of Weather Underground, the online weather site.
He said a patch of dry air between South Florida and the Caribbean could inhibit its development.
If the disturbance does aim directly for this region, we could start feeling its rains by Thursday night and potentially see rough weather on Friday.
One way or the other, the National Weather Service expects our rain chances to increase "significantly" by Friday, whether the system makes a direct hit or just brushes us.
"It looks like whatever is down there is generally headed in our direction," said meteorologist Dan Dixon. "It's just something we'll have to watch."
The wave is expected to bring heavy rains and gusty winds to the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Cacos and the southern Bahamas over the next couple of days.
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