October 03, 2011
by Mitch Battros - Earth Changes
Sunspot region 1305 has produced three M-class flares over the last 24 hours, both associated with an Earth-directed CME. Multiple C-class flares and an occasional M-class flare can still be expected from active regions 1302 and 1305.
Sunspot region 1289 is coming around the eastern limb and is most likely the source of several backside CMEs over the last few days, including the big limb CME of Oct.1 21:36UT.
The associated CMEs have a high chance to be geo-effective. The solar wind speed has increased to 570km/s over the last few hours. This will maintain the geomagnetic activity at unsettled to active levels over the next 24 hours.
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The CME of October 3rd is associated with the Sept.30th M-class flare and should hit the Earth's magnetic field triggering a significant geomagnetic storm.
Sunspots => Solar Flares (charged particles) => Magnetic Field Shift => Shifting Ocean and Jet Stream Currents => Extreme Weather and Human Disruption (mitch battros 1998).
The magnitude of the disturbance, as related to the Kp index, is still difficult to establish with current available data. A second CME from the Oct.1 M-class flare should follow soon (<12 hours) after the first one, causing a second peak in geomagnetic activity on the wake of the first disturbance.
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